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 Recent Trade History Database

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hereticloki
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PostSubject: Recent Trade History Database   Mon Jan 14, 2013 7:21 pm

Greetings All

I am pleased to be able to annouce the deployment of the database of recent prices BigMastaB97 and I have compiled.

Our intentions are to update the database as often as new prices are observed in the market.  The file will be updated once daily, usually later in the evening.

If anyone would like to assist, BigmastaB and I would be happy to enter prices that have been observed by you all.  Not sure if postings should go in this thread or via PM.  For now either would be fine.

This document is intended to be a community resource, so the more input we get from the community the better it will be.

The file will return the highest price in the database and the most recent quoted price as well as the dates associated with both.

For units not yet released, and units which no longer have available fresh units, those prices are not represented.

4* units and monster units are not included at the moment, but may be added down the road.

If anyone has any questions please don't hesitate to ask...

The link is here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ApkEsLmwjUtydG9DT19PTklYcXFVVWFrYlVRVUtteWc#gid=1

One more note.  There are two tabs to the document.  You will see the words Units and input in the lower left.  Click on Units to get to the table format.  If you are seeing yellow you're on the wrong tab.


Last edited by hereticloki on Thu Jan 17, 2013 8:38 am; edited 3 times in total
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sleepybryan
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PostSubject: Re: Recent Trade History Database   Mon Jan 14, 2013 7:31 pm

This document will do more harm than good if it becomes an establishment.

I work in a fund management house so am aware of how a pricing agency can distort the market.

What you all are doing is good but if it becomes the bible the document will stop trading activities completely. This is because people will insist to trade on the values provided by the above. However there will be people who have their own values and will not budge from their own prespective.

Secondly your valuation of cards is base on market trend which is dangerous. I can tell you that barbara at the moment has one of the lowest value, yet when arena event comes her value will double. People who have no clue about the game system will trade accordingly to the above. If you are to value something you need to have a standard for valuation, not on market trend. Historically did you know in real life market people who traded on market trend can lose value completely? For example orchid/orchid seeds back in the old days could sell for like 10000 way back, but what was the fuctional value? Nothing in the end people who bought it base on trend crash and burn.

Lastly this is a card game for god's sake, you might say you want to be fair to people. If you really want to be fair you have to treat it like the real world. There will always be arbitrage opportunities from people who lack knowledge. Only after once your burn you learn how to manage your assets properly. Don't rely on others, rely on your own.
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BigMastaB97
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PostSubject: Re: Recent Trade History Database   Mon Jan 14, 2013 7:45 pm

sleepybryan wrote:
This document will do more harm than good if it becomes an establishment.

I work in a fund management house so am aware of how a pricing agency can distort the market.

What you all are doing is good but if it becomes the bible the document will stop trading activities completely. This is because people will insist to trade on the values provided by the above. However there will be people who have their own values and will not budge from their own prespective.

Secondly your valuation of cards is base on market trend which is dangerous. I can tell you that barbara at the moment has one of the lowest value, yet when arena event comes her value will double. People who have no clue about the game system will trade accordingly to the above. If you are to value something you need to have a standard for valuation, not on market trend. Historically did you know in real life market people who traded on market trend can lose value completely? For example orchid/orchid seeds back in the old days could sell for like 10000 way back, but what was the fuctional value? Nothing in the end people who bought it base on trend crash and burn.

Lastly this is a card game for god's sake, you might say you want to be fair to people. If you really want to be fair you have to treat it like the real world. There will always be arbitrage opportunities from people who lack knowledge. Only after once your burn you learn how to manage your assets properly. Don't rely on others, rely on your own.

First off when it comes to cards doubling in value due to certain events, the list will be updated.
Second the only way to price a card is buy going on what everything is going for in the market or else there would never be a price.

And besides saying that this list will only do harm because everyone is buying/selling based on this list is the same as saying the price check sticky that clocksprocket made is only making the game worse.

Also, you can't treat this game like it's real life cause people don't take this game seriously enough as if it was real life. What most people do is once they see someone sell a card cheap but actually get pure TE for the card EVERYONE starts selling for whatever the low price was.
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hereticloki
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PostSubject: Re: Recent Trade History Database   Mon Jan 14, 2013 7:50 pm

I'm a data analyst by trade, so I know how volitale valuation situations can be.

To use another example of how valuation can crash virtually overnight, in the late 1800s whale oil was an extremely valuable commodity. The proliferation of electricity and development of petroleum based fuels and other synthetic lubricants completely eliminated the value of whale oil.

I have built some safegards into the system to allow an end user to be able to readily identify a longstanding price from a one that has recently changed, and the file will be updated regularly.

All prices are associated with the date they are entered. I started by transcribing the price check thread, which showed dropping 5* prices across the board. You can see that a good portion of the Max prices listed date from earlier than 1/12 which was the date I created the file and BigMasta entered the prices I didn't have handy.

I disagree that burning is a requirement to learn how to manage assets. I wish there was something like this out there for me when I started. Because I wanted to research. I understand that a market will bear only what it can. So regardless of what my file says, if I can't find someone to pay the established price for a unit either I lower my price or I fail to sell it.

I don't think this will result in a stagnation of trading, just a stagnation of trading that involves one of the parties being taken advantage of due to lack of knowledge.

Not to mention there are 1,000,000 downloads on the google play store + at least that many in Ios. But there are what 3,000 members of the forum. There will be plenty of people playing the game that never see my file.

As far as the Barbara example. Well that's the opportunity that this will engender. EVERYONE will know that her established price is low at the moment, but only those who are more familiar with the game can buy low.

The demand will create new values which will then be tracked in the database. And Barbara's price will change to reflect this.

Same thing would happen should a new better Charles be released, as Charles prices drop the database will update.
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sleepybryan
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PostSubject: Re: Recent Trade History Database   Mon Jan 14, 2013 7:52 pm

You all are trying to be regulators, in an economy the best form is free hand even if it means that some people will be disadvantaged.

Your way of thinking is similar to communism, to try to treat everyone equally but in the end look what happened? Why try to price a card when you have no standard valuation to the above? Who is to say that current market price is correct and why enforce that values to people?

No the price check is good because it is not an establishment, it is a guidance that people seek. In a free economy people who seek information are better informed and can make better decision.

Your not an investment person hence i understand why your perception is different, but from an investment perspective this is my feedback.
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hereticloki
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PostSubject: Re: Recent Trade History Database   Mon Jan 14, 2013 8:01 pm

Honestly I appreciate the feedback.

But for someone like you or I wouldn't you have loved to have data available to you when you started, and to have a data set to work with?

I looked to find this forum, and I looked to understand both the actual realities of the game as well as the mechanics behind it.

There isn't any way for someone who isn't living on the RCR and the forum to have any idea where to start with valuation. Hell when I started I didn't even know that TE was the accepted "Gold Standard".

The PC thread is cleared out on a regular basis, so there is no historical data available.
I started in the midst of the Vallahall TE crunch, so I had no idea what some of the cards could be worth in a better market. But as an investor my first move was to find some basis to understand the values.

I can't go to the mall and see what Toys R Us is selling the item for. I can only see what people are asking, which as you stated has NO basis in market value, merely the value of the owner. It's like trying to find the valuation of an Xbox360 based only on Craigslist ads.


Edited to add: I could give a hoot about "Price Enforcement" I just know I would have killed for this document when I started playing this game. So I endeavored to make it, and I wanted to share the fruits of my labor. I make spreadsheets for everything. You should see my databases for Fantasy Baseball...
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BigMastaB97
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PostSubject: Re: Recent Trade History Database   Mon Jan 14, 2013 8:07 pm

sleepybryan wrote:
You all are trying to be regulators, in an economy the best form is free hand even if it means that some people will be disadvantaged.

Your way of thinking is similar to communism, to try to treat everyone equally but in the end look what happened? Why try to price a card when you have no standard valuation to the above? Who is to say that current market price is correct and why enforce that values to people?

No the price check is good because it is not an establishment, it is a guidance that people seek. In a free economy people who seek information are better informed and can make better decision.

Your not an investment person hence i understand why your perception is different, but from an investment perspective this is my feedback.

Look I don't mean to offend you but the market in a video game is nothing like a market in real life.
So when you say "who is to say that the current market price is correct?" My answer is no one can really answer that because the market never has a set price nor can it ever be right or wrong. It's simply just people following other people's trades.

I wouldn't call this an "establishment" either considering were still taking advice from other people just like the Price Check Thread, the only difference is now you don't have to ask someone to do a Price Check. You can just go and find the card you want a price on. If someone thinks that there is something wrong contact me and if it sounds right I'll change it.

You're trying to think way too much about this, all you're looking at are the con's. You being an "investment man" should know that you gotta look at the pro's and con's in order to succeed.
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sleepybryan
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PostSubject: Re: Recent Trade History Database   Mon Jan 14, 2013 8:12 pm

I am not sure whether you guys understand what my feedback was, i am not against the spreadsheet but against the idea of it being the "bible". Having a newbie guide is good enough to teach newbies what is the trading commodity in the game.

When you try to name it as a Price Check database people will automatically assume that this values are "correct" and will trade accordingly. Going back to the barbara debate, if i was a newbie and had barbara i would instantly regconized the value at that and might sell for that value to people who regconized the value in later events.

My point is there should not be a regulation on what pricing is, your spreadsheet is not a gold standard. If you had to name it it would just be trades done on the market and not a price check. I would call it trade dones, hell i can over or under trade but the real value is subjective to one's own pricing model.

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sleepybryan
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PostSubject: Re: Recent Trade History Database   Mon Jan 14, 2013 8:14 pm

and no for an investment person you only look at the downside to manage your returns....as i said if your not an investment person you will never understand this concept
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mythic99
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PostSubject: Re: Recent Trade History Database   Mon Jan 14, 2013 8:15 pm

If just for reference, I would suggest you elicit more people to join and make an averaged* history pricing based on the cards.

Say bigmasta and you both sold a rose.

100, 50 TE respectively. The average is 75. Which is fairly useful. The more people that chip in to help, the better / more close to market trend this will be.

Of course this should only take the recent 200? 3 months? data of the said card.

And the difficulty lies to get an enough data size so it's not just you and BigMasta's perception / price set.
Looking over the spreadsheet, it's pretty inline with the market value from all the in game / forum trading. (I check these things almost every day / 10 times a day).

Thanks for the good work.

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hereticloki
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PostSubject: Re: Recent Trade History Database   Mon Jan 14, 2013 8:16 pm

sleepybryan wrote:
I am not sure whether you guys understand what my feedback was, i am not against the spreadsheet but against the idea of it being the "bible". Having a newbie guide is good enough to teach newbies what is the trading commodity in the game.

When you try to name it as a Price Check database people will automatically assume that this values are "correct" and will trade accordingly. Going back to the barbara debate, if i was a newbie and had barbara i would instantly regconized the value at that and might sell for that value to people who regconized the value in later events.

My point is there should not be a regulation on what pricing is, your spreadsheet is not a gold standard. If you had to name it it would just be trades done on the market and not a price check. I would call it trade dones, hell i can over or under trade but the real value is subjective to one's own pricing model.


Title changed. Let it never be said that I'm not reasonable. Very Happy

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hereticloki
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PostSubject: Re: Recent Trade History Database   Mon Jan 14, 2013 8:18 pm

mythic99 wrote:
If just for reference, I would suggest you elicit more people to join and make an averaged* history pricing based on the cards.

Say bigmasta and you both sold a rose.

100, 50 TE respectively. The average is 75. Which is fairly useful. The more people that chip in to help, the better / more close to market trend this will be.

Of course this should only take the recent 200? 3 months? data of the said card.

And the difficulty lies to get an enough data size so it's not just you and BigMasta's perception / price set.
Looking over the spreadsheet, it's pretty inline with the market value from all the in game / forum trading. (I check these things almost every day / 10 times a day).

Thanks for the good work.


I asked for assistance in the first post. I would be happy to add people as editors to the document or add their observations in myself.

We started this project on Sunday. If there was a dataset available trust me I would have gotten it.

I AM calculating average, max and most recent prices along with dates associated with the last two.

The table is dynamic and will recalculate with new entries, which will be entered as often as they become available.
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BigMastaB97
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PostSubject: Re: Recent Trade History Database   Mon Jan 14, 2013 8:21 pm

sleepybryan wrote:
I am not sure whether you guys understand what my feedback was, i am not against the spreadsheet but against the idea of it being the "bible". Having a newbie guide is good enough to teach newbies what is the trading commodity in the game.

When you try to name it as a Price Check database people will automatically assume that this values are "correct" and will trade accordingly. Going back to the barbara debate, if i was a newbie and had barbara i would instantly regconized the value at that and might sell for that value to people who regconized the value in later events.

My point is there should not be a regulation on what pricing is, your spreadsheet is not a gold standard. If you had to name it it would just be trades done on the market and not a price check. I would call it trade dones, hell i can over or under trade but the real value is subjective to one's own pricing model.


Naming it "Price Check Database" is accurate as it's gonna get considering it's a database... based on, Price Checks. Also these prices are accurate based on once again people doing trades, and I don't think that people are going to think that these prices are "correct" most people (newbie or not) know that in a RPG style game like this there can never be a set price but this list helps cause it's the closest thing to a set price as it's gonna get. No I'm not saying it's perfect but like I've been saying all along, this market cannot be, nor will it ever be perfect.

Also you practically are saying you're against it by saying you're against the idea, and we're not trying to make it the bible of price checks. It's simply a guide.
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sleepybryan
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PostSubject: Re: Recent Trade History Database   Mon Jan 14, 2013 8:22 pm

Haha, i am not against you all i hope you all understand that and yes i agree more data information is good Smile.
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HoundR
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PostSubject: Re: Recent Trade History Database   Mon Jan 14, 2013 8:22 pm

BigMastaB97 wrote:


Also, you can't treat this game like it's real life cause people don't take this game seriously enough as if it was real life. What most people do is once they see someone sell a card cheap but actually get pure TE for the card EVERYONE starts selling for whatever the low price was.

I only want to add that some people DO take the game seriously, some a lot more than others. If they didn't, they wouldn't spend real money on it. That's the difference between paying players and free ones (of course, not taking into account people who simply can't spend money on the game, just the ones that have it, but choose not to)

Spending money on a virtual TCG that will not have real-life revenue because selling cards is against rules just for happiness or bragging rights or whatever is taking it seriously... at least in a small amount.

Of course, people that can spend money AND not care is because they're rich Razz
At least, that's the way I see it, I'm not saying it's an universal truth lol!

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hereticloki
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PostSubject: Re: Recent Trade History Database   Mon Jan 14, 2013 8:24 pm

lastly I think this portion of the conversation will clearly establish that this is not a bible and not everyone agrees...
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BigMastaB97
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PostSubject: Re: Recent Trade History Database   Mon Jan 14, 2013 8:24 pm

mythic99 wrote:
If just for reference, I would suggest you elicit more people to join and make an averaged* history pricing based on the cards.

Say bigmasta and you both sold a rose.

100, 50 TE respectively. The average is 75. Which is fairly useful. The more people that chip in to help, the better / more close to market trend this will be.

Of course this should only take the recent 200? 3 months? data of the said card.

And the difficulty lies to get an enough data size so it's not just you and BigMasta's perception / price set.
Looking over the spreadsheet, it's pretty inline with the market value from all the in game / forum trading. (I check these things almost every day / 10 times a day).

Thanks for the good work.


I appreciate your opinion. I also appreciate everyone else's whether they liked it or not.
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sleepybryan
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PostSubject: Re: Recent Trade History Database   Mon Jan 14, 2013 8:25 pm

I would think that if i ask you to price check me that is the current market value, however trades done is different. Ya there is a trade done at that price, i can either reference to the price or ignore it.

However it seems that your already set on what you want to do BigMastaB97, either way this is only my feedback, good luck with what you guys are doing!
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shizukanii
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PostSubject: Re: Recent Trade History Database   Mon Jan 14, 2013 8:26 pm

I appreciate the work into this. Thanks Smile Whatever ends up happening, this is good reference material for ballpark estimates. After all, people can always choose to overprice and then slowly cut the asking price until it's sold.
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BigMastaB97
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PostSubject: Re: Recent Trade History Database   Mon Jan 14, 2013 8:28 pm

HoundR wrote:
BigMastaB97 wrote:


Also, you can't treat this game like it's real life cause people don't take this game seriously enough as if it was real life. What most people do is once they see someone sell a card cheap but actually get pure TE for the card EVERYONE starts selling for whatever the low price was.

I only want to add that some people DO take the game seriously, some a lot more than others. If they didn't, they wouldn't spend real money on it. That's the difference between paying players and free ones (of course, not taking into account people who simply can't spend money on the game, just the ones that have it, but choose not to)

Spending money on a virtual TCG that will not have real-life revenue because selling cards is against rules just for happiness or bragging rights or whatever is taking it seriously... at least in a small amount.

Of course, people that can spend money AND not care is because they're rich Razz
At least, that's the way I see it, I'm not saying it's an universal truth lol!

That's a very valid point but I was just saying market wise they don't take it seriously. Some people yes they do but most people just set a price and once it doesn't sell they go lower, and lower, and so on until it gets to the point to where there is a market price drop. But then again I guess you can say that my point is invalid considering a market price drop cannot be avoided.
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BigMastaB97
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PostSubject: Re: Recent Trade History Database   Mon Jan 14, 2013 8:29 pm

sleepybryan wrote:
I would think that if i ask you to price check me that is the current market value, however trades done is different. Ya there is a trade done at that price, i can either reference to the price or ignore it.

However it seems that your already set on what you want to do BigMastaB97, either way this is only my feedback, good luck with what you guys are doing!

Well thanks for the feedback.
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HoundR
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PostSubject: Re: Recent Trade History Database   Mon Jan 14, 2013 8:44 pm

Let's say that, merging both comments, they both come true. People take the game seriously, trading in-game not so much. Smile

And I like the idea, I actually told someone else that, if I had the time and prices didn't change so quickly, I'd have done it. There was also the issue with some people knowing a lot more prices than me and just being trading gurus *wink*, but that's a whole different story.

But please don't take overpriced cards as a way to make an average, I think that wouldn't be good and would actually affect the market. That way, all cards would be slightly overpriced until another super mega ultra drop happened and would make trading harder for everyone.

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BigMastaB97
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PostSubject: Re: Recent Trade History Database   Mon Jan 14, 2013 8:50 pm

HoundR wrote:
Let's say that, merging both comments, they both come true. People take the game seriously, trading in-game not so much. Smile

And I like the idea, I actually told someone else that, if I had the time and prices didn't change so quickly, I'd have done it. There was also the issue with some people knowing a lot more prices than me and just being trading gurus *wink*, but that's a whole different story.

But please don't take overpriced cards as a way to make an average, I think that wouldn't be good and would actually affect the market. That way, all cards would be slightly overpriced until another super mega ultra drop happened and would make trading harder for everyone.

Yeah I don't put overpriced cards in there as average card selling prices, don't worry.

Thanks for the positive feedback.
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predator852
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PostSubject: Re: Recent Trade History Database   Mon Jan 14, 2013 8:59 pm

hereticloki wrote:
sleepybryan wrote:
I am not sure whether you guys understand what my feedback was, i am not against the spreadsheet but against the idea of it being the "bible". Having a newbie guide is good enough to teach newbies what is the trading commodity in the game.

When you try to name it as a Price Check database people will automatically assume that this values are "correct" and will trade accordingly. Going back to the barbara debate, if i was a newbie and had barbara i would instantly regconized the value at that and might sell for that value to people who regconized the value in later events.

My point is there should not be a regulation on what pricing is, your spreadsheet is not a gold standard. If you had to name it it would just be trades done on the market and not a price check. I would call it trade dones, hell i can over or under trade but the real value is subjective to one's own pricing model.


Title changed. Let it never be said that I'm not reasonable. Very Happy


Uhh...we have like not even 3k registered users...like 2k tops ghost the forum...and there are almost 25k active monthly users in the game...this spreadsheet will never sway the masses, there is no need to fear...

That being said, I like this a lot! It's always good to have a record somewhere of what someone thinks on something, even if it is not set in stone or completely objective...

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PostSubject: Re: Recent Trade History Database   Mon Jan 14, 2013 9:07 pm

i know i might be asking too much but i know it would help me a lot more if you can

1) create a separate column for date sold--this gives an idea to people (or just me?) when the trade is done (I know the first column has it already, it's just a bit messy....) and how long ago was it done.

2) It'll be even better if there's yet another column to tell people what event (or what type of event) was ongoing when the trade was done. As we all know that events affect the value of cards greatly (or, as some say, the value of TE/POT)

3) for the love of god please use a color other than yellow to highlight. it hurts my eyes...... (some smooth color like light blue or purple would do the job)

4) just a quick question, is it made solely based on the trades done on forum? As you know the in-game trade sometimes has different value

All in all, thanks for your time to establish this. I'm pretty sure people will use it, and i anticipate some quarrels coming up in the near future for this......(fighting for prices and stuff). Let's hope it is a good change Smile
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