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 Approximate Odds in Brave Card Packs

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Kadaan
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Join date : 2012-10-30
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PostSubject: Approximate Odds in Brave Card Packs   Sun Dec 02, 2012 5:00 pm

I've been keeping track of every card I got in brave packs and hit 1000 packs opened today. Here's the breakdown, if anyone is curious Smile

834
83.40%
~5:6
★★
161
16.10%
~1:6
★★★
5
0.50%
~1:200

I'm not sure if it's even possible to pull a 4* or higher, but if it is it's EXTREMELY low.

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visionofthegods
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PostSubject: Re: Approximate Odds in Brave Card Packs   Sun Dec 02, 2012 5:14 pm

Ty for this
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ChibiLeen
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PostSubject: Re: Approximate Odds in Brave Card Packs   Mon Dec 03, 2012 12:59 am

Kadaan wrote:

I'm not sure if it's even possible to pull a 4* or higher, but if it is it's EXTREMELY low.

I've been wondering about that. Gunnel's picture on the card pack seems to indicate that it is possible to draw a 4*, but the chances are probably as low as drawing a 6* in a box, or even lower.

I've been playing for three weeks, and have finally drawn a 3* from a normal card pack yesterday. I was beginning to think it was a myth. xD
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Evageek
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PostSubject: Re: Approximate Odds in Brave Card Packs   Mon Dec 03, 2012 2:26 am


Thanks for the info.
Been saving my points since foa2 and have around 60k
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aszutai
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PostSubject: Re: Approximate Odds in Brave Card Packs   Mon Dec 03, 2012 3:17 am

Thanks for going through the trouble of keep track of all that data

Been saving up my points as well, got some major leveling up to do after the next two events lol
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steakjuice



Join date : 2012-10-21
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PostSubject: Re: Approximate Odds in Brave Card Packs   Mon Dec 03, 2012 3:11 pm

I somehow got 2 3* units back to back when I decided to go through all of my brave points. Lycanthrope and the butterfly-dude unit. Gives me hope of one day opening a 5* from a premium ticket pack. Laughing
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cosmicsurf9



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PostSubject: Re: Approximate Odds in Brave Card Packs   Thu Dec 06, 2012 9:32 pm

i have only pulled one 4* ever from brave packs = Miriam
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wildfire116
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PostSubject: Re: Approximate Odds in Brave Card Packs   Thu Dec 06, 2012 9:41 pm

cosmicsurf9 wrote:
i have only pulled one 4* ever from brave packs = Miriam


Whoa just imagine you can pull 5/6 but its basically impossible cause of the odds lol
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rlh



Join date : 2012-11-29
Posts : 120

PostSubject: Re: Approximate Odds in Brave Card Packs   Fri Dec 07, 2012 6:16 am

I think that the cards that you pull from brave points aren't entirely random.

There have been times where I'd go to pull 10 cards, and 5 would be 2*s, and I'd get a three. Then, there would be days where 2*s are quite rare, and all I'd get was mostly 1*s.

Now, before anyone goes and states 'that's the nature of randomness', also understand that I tend to consistently see cards come up in brave that are also from the current Training quest that I'm hitting.

If I have 3000-4000 brave setup, I will often get multiples of the same card, always from the last training quest I was one.

IMHO, It seems that Mobage's Random Card Generator is based off of your training statistics or usage.
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joeladams20
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PostSubject: Re: Approximate Odds in Brave Card Packs   Fri Dec 07, 2012 9:43 am

ChibiLeen wrote:
Kadaan wrote:

I'm not sure if it's even possible to pull a 4* or higher, but if it is it's EXTREMELY low.

I've been wondering about that. Gunnel's picture on the card pack seems to indicate that it is possible to draw a 4*, but the chances are probably as low as drawing a 6* in a box, or even lower.

I've been playing for three weeks, and have finally drawn a 3* from a normal card pack yesterday. I was beginning to think it was a myth. xD

Been playing this game since black dragon event and have only pulled two 3*'s. Never a 4*. Sad
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rlh



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PostSubject: Re: Approximate Odds in Brave Card Packs   Tue Dec 11, 2012 12:30 pm

And speaking of odds...

I just got a new ally who was at level 36 when I added him. The guy has a bunch of crappy cards, as you suspect from someone who has only been playing for 2 weeks, so no shame... Except for one card.

The guy hasn't spent a dime on the game and has only received a couple premium tickets.

He pulled a Patricia. I didn't even know you could pull a 5* with premiums and this guy pulls one of the most useful ones for the current event.

Crazy (lucky!)
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Crowex
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PostSubject: Re: Approximate Odds in Brave Card Packs   Tue Dec 11, 2012 12:41 pm

I've pulled 3 4*s: Angela, Kraken, Miriam

5 3*s seems awfully low for 1K cards pulled :\ I've gotten maybe 5 or 6 this last week with 7K brave points.

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Kadaan
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PostSubject: Re: Approximate Odds in Brave Card Packs   Tue Dec 11, 2012 12:57 pm

I'm still keeping track and I'll update again when I hit 2k cards Very Happy.

My odds have been worse so far though; 230 cards past 1k and only one 3* so far.

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themadmanazn
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PostSubject: Re: Approximate Odds in Brave Card Packs   Tue Dec 11, 2012 6:51 pm

I feel like it has gotten worse since the maintenance between Den of Sin and the Phantom Hunt event.

I use to get a 2* every 5-7 1*'s, but after the maintenance I went like 20 1*'s in a row!

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Callanthe
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PostSubject: Re: Approximate Odds in Brave Card Packs   Wed Dec 12, 2012 11:35 am

I just opened 40 and got

35 1* = 87.5%
5 2* (Anna, 2 Kiras, Veronika, and Claudio) = 12.5%


I was beginning to wonder whether I had been cursed after getting 19 1*s in a row. The 2*s only showed up near the end lol

Edit: added a few more tries
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PostSubject: Re: Approximate Odds in Brave Card Packs   Today at 8:48 am

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