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 Struesdell's Theorycrafting

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cuddytime



Join date : 2012-08-14
Posts : 135

PostSubject: Re: Struesdell's Theorycrafting   Sat Sep 15, 2012 8:21 pm

struesdell wrote:
Updated Colosseum Best-in-Slot List
Like a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heaven [No Duplicates, Max Damage]
  1. Vlad
  2. Monica
  3. Nina
  4. Beatrix
  5. Charles
    UGH, CHARLES. Vlad and Monica are EXPENSIVE but their max attacks are HUGE. This list gives you two knockbacks and a slow, which is solid. Nina earns her keep and is a steal at 15, but Beatrix and Charles are all you can fit otherwise. :/
    I think "all 6*" is just unreasonable, and this proves it. I couldn't even get Cecilia in for the BT boost.


Like a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heaven [No Duplicates, BT+]
  1. Cecilia
  2. Vlad
  3. Anastasia
  4. Nina
  5. Charles
    Here's the best if you DO force Cecilia in. Two knockbacks, poison, slow. But Losing Monica hurts.
    There's no way to lose Charles here without also losing Vlad.

Cecilia gets a huge damage boost and attacks first...

I think max Cecilia will get a damage boost equal to max attack faith.
The best lineup is:
Cecilia (25)
3x Nina (15 x 3 = 45)
Vlad (30)

Without would be:
Cecilia (25)
Ana (20)
Vlad (30)
Nina (15)
Charles (10)
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cuddytime



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PostSubject: Re: Struesdell's Theorycrafting   Sat Sep 15, 2012 8:26 pm

struesdell wrote:
So now that I've traded away my Ignat, I feel better posting this.

Here is a comparative analysis of the relative damage output of all the 5* cards based on my current stat weights and analysis.
This does NOT reflect Colosseum effectiveness, but rather Quest / Battle power.



Do you see how crazy Heidimarie is? It's not fair. She has no business being a 5* card.

I want you to disagree. This is based on my own perception and I'd love to work some of your perceptions into it for a better spectrum.

For example, somebody has to convince me that Gerhard isn't garbage. You love your Gerhard. Why?
I feel like this chart (while good) doesn't take into account the various stat boosts. I think it's a good baseline though.

I think another thing to consider is that if a monster is slower, then having a slow effect unit is best (coupled with poison) and if you have fast monsters, knock back is best (coupled with area attack)

Also, when trying to max dmg, Alex is only good in ONE case when trying to max your damage (did some theory crafting myself during DT event)
Claudio is worth it in almost 0 cases
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struesdell
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PostSubject: Re: Struesdell's Theorycrafting   Sat Sep 15, 2012 8:29 pm

cuddytime wrote:

Cecilia gets a huge damage boost and attacks first...

I think max Cecilia will get a damage boost equal to max attack faith.
The best lineup is:
Cecilia (25)
3x Nina (15 x 3 = 45)
Vlad (30)

Without would be:
Cecilia (25)
Ana (20)
Vlad (30)
Nina (15)
Charles (10)

Oh, definitely on the Cecilia now. At the time, I wasn't aware that the Military units got the 3x damage boost. I'll have to update the whole list since Christof and others look way better at 4* and below than they did also.

I mention in the post with the chart that the chart doesn't reflect Colosseum specific bonuses at all.
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cuddytime



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PostSubject: Re: Struesdell's Theorycrafting   Sat Sep 15, 2012 8:31 pm

right on ^^ i was referring to stat boosts like knockback, slow, etc.
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struesdell
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PostSubject: Re: Struesdell's Theorycrafting   Sat Sep 15, 2012 8:38 pm

cuddytime wrote:
right on ^^ i was referring to stat boosts like knockback, slow, etc.

Oh, it absolutely includes modifiers for those abilities.
This is NOT a straight power ranking.

I'm adjusting the value of each card by up to +30% based on their skills.
As I mention elsewhere in this thread, I'm ranking them Knockback > Slow > Attack Boosts (Men/Women) > Attack Boost (Camille) = Area Attack > Poison = Range +
I agree that COMBINATIONS of these make for a lot of different levels of value. But by themselves, this is pretty much how I count them.
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Shokkeru
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PostSubject: Re: Struesdell's Theorycrafting   Sat Sep 15, 2012 8:45 pm

Does this take speed into account?

I'd really like Heid if it weren't for her E speed. I heard that her range makes up for it, but I can't stand E speed units sometimes (aka Hilde).
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cuddytime



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PostSubject: Re: Struesdell's Theorycrafting   Sat Sep 15, 2012 8:46 pm

if I may suggest: melee poison & slow > than melee knock back (unless you're vlad lol) - adjust values accordingly

not sure how complex you're making your stat charts, but I've made one of my own as well. let me know if you have one available so I can add to it.

In reference to alex or claudio (for DT style events):
My assumption is that in order to make alex or claudio viable, you need to have either of them do as much damage is your next viable candidate
- My base assumption is that you have repeats of your highest attack value card
I did some theory crafting on claudio as an attack boost option is not viable under any circumstance- highest female damage card is ana. Claudio simply doesn't cover that damage gap

For Alex, it's dependant on how many vlads you could summon.
Alex could squeeze out a ton more DPS if you had AT LEAST 3 max vlad and didn't have a vlad of your own


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struesdell
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PostSubject: Re: Struesdell's Theorycrafting   Sat Sep 15, 2012 9:02 pm

cuddytime wrote:
if I may suggest: melee poison & slow > than melee knock back (unless you're vlad lol) - adjust values accordingly

Could you clarify this? Why do you feel Slow and Poison are better for melee? I'm not going to adjust it without a rationale. Smile

Quote :
In reference to alex or claudio (for DT style events): [sic]

I totally agree for both of these, if you're looking at the full spectrum of cards available. I think Alex has a place in a 4* card deck but once you're holding a 5* or two she loses value fast.


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struesdell
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PostSubject: Re: Struesdell's Theorycrafting   Sat Sep 15, 2012 9:20 pm

cuddytime wrote:

Cecilia gets a huge damage boost and attacks first...

I think max Cecilia will get a damage boost equal to max attack faith.
The best lineup is:
Cecilia (25)
3x Nina (15 x 3 = 45)
Vlad (30)

Without would be:
Cecilia (25)
Ana (20)
Vlad (30)
Nina (15)
Charles (10)

So, now that I understand the military bonus damage better, I think these are all wrong.
Nina is great, but she's going to be doing a little over a third of the damage Heidimarie does.
Heidmarie does more damage than Vlad, more damage than Monica, more damage than anybody who isn't Cecilia.
I hate Heidimarie.

I think BiS for 6* is now

6* Cecilia
5* Heidimarie
5* Heidimarie
5* Heidimarie
5* Heidimarie
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RedRivers
R. Ich. Rodent [Rare]


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PostSubject: Re: Struesdell's Theorycrafting   Sat Sep 15, 2012 11:27 pm

so now people pay 2 5* for Heidi?
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cuddytime



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PostSubject: Re: Struesdell's Theorycrafting   Sat Sep 15, 2012 11:32 pm

the problem with heidei is that her attack speed is "E."

I've run into multiple heidei builds before and i haven't run into any trouble since they're at the end of the attack queue
the build i posted with 3x nina is my build... but replace vlad with monica; it takes me 20 seconds to clear normal mobs

in reference to the melee unit priority:
melee units lose utility with knock back as melee since after the units are out of their range, they will just sit there until the monsters pass into range again whereas slow will allow the unit to get 1-2 extra hits in depending on monster speed
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struesdell
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PostSubject: Re: Struesdell's Theorycrafting   Sun Sep 16, 2012 12:37 am

cuddytime wrote:
the problem with heidei is that her attack speed is "E."

I've run into multiple heidei builds before and i haven't run into any trouble since they're at the end of the attack queue
the build i posted with 3x nina is my build... but replace vlad with monica; it takes me 20 seconds to clear normal mobs

I am totes jelly of your having lots of awesome cards. Obviously most of what I do is speculative since all I have are three 5*s.

Quote :
in reference to the melee unit priority:
melee units lose utility with knock back as melee since after the units are out of their range, they will just sit there until the monsters pass into range again whereas slow will allow the unit to get 1-2 extra hits in depending on monster speed

That's the kind of insight I'm looking for. Thanks, I'll try to incorporate that into my maths.
It still feels like the Knockback retains a lot of value as a way to move targets into range of your other guys. Ranged units are going to have the same result; knockback means your other guys get to take more hits, slow means you all get to take more hits. This probably adjusts my opinion of knockback vs slow across the board.
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cuddytime



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PostSubject: Re: Struesdell's Theorycrafting   Sun Sep 16, 2012 8:54 am

i'd say your speculations are 99% correct :]
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struesdell
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PostSubject: Re: Struesdell's Theorycrafting   Mon Sep 17, 2012 8:12 pm

Okay, so some interesting developments.

I swapped Slow and Knockback in my order based on cuddytime's insight and applied a malus for melee units with Knockback. That's not a huge change, but it matters.
I fixed a few places where the japanese wiki was lying to me about card skills. Mostly assigning Area Attack to a few cards that were missing it.
I finished testing on speed D and E cards. The speed progression isn't consistent across all entries, and is more like this:

S: 1.3/s
A: 1.2/s
B: 1.1/s
C: 1/s
D: .8/s
E: .5/s

This severely devalues cards with D and E speeds across the board. And it seems consistent with people's impression that E speed is the suck. It is the suck. Well noted.

This has adjusted my graph.



Heidimarie's stats are still nuts. But her E speed means that they're not worth nearly what I had them valued at before.
Sheryl's stats are high and she has C speed, which pulls her ahead in spite of not having a skill.
Joachim is still awesome, but the devaluation of Knockback overall moved him down a little. For transparency, Knockback on ranged units used to be a *1.3 multiplier, now it's a *1.25. Not huge, but enough to bump him down below Sheryl.

Note that I'm not applying any kind of bonus or malus to melee/missile/magic types based on that descriptor. I haven't found a reason yet to hate on one damage type or another yet. Cards that can't hit the air are already penalized for that by not having any stats in that column.
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Serotheo



Join date : 2012-09-03
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PostSubject: Re: Struesdell's Theorycrafting   Mon Sep 17, 2012 8:18 pm

Oh gosh, I imagined that in a sort of factual expert in a suit explaining this - all of course with the appropriate voice.
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struesdell
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PostSubject: Re: Struesdell's Theorycrafting   Mon Sep 17, 2012 8:28 pm

Serotheo wrote:
Oh gosh, I imagined that in a sort of factual expert in a suit explaining this - all of course with the appropriate voice.

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cuddytime



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PostSubject: Re: Struesdell's Theorycrafting   Mon Sep 17, 2012 10:19 pm

haha now do one with 6*'s... b/c i'm lazy
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zoebeagle
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PostSubject: Re: Struesdell's Theorycrafting   Mon Sep 17, 2012 10:38 pm

Really enjoying this thread.

One thing I'm not sure you've taken into account with the archers (not Heidi): They shoot multiple consecutive shots, and if their current target dies before all of their shots have been fired, they will move to the next target to finish off their "turn". This can result in damage against multiple mobs and, with Joachim, knockback.
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struesdell
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PostSubject: Re: Struesdell's Theorycrafting   Mon Sep 17, 2012 10:58 pm

cuddytime wrote:
haha now do one with 6*'s... b/c i'm lazy

YOU AND YOUR DEMANDS!

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struesdell
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PostSubject: Re: Struesdell's Theorycrafting   Mon Sep 17, 2012 10:59 pm

zoebeagle wrote:
Really enjoying this thread.

I'm glad! I can't be the best at the game so I'm trying to be the best at pretending.

Quote :
One thing I'm not sure you've taken into account with the archers (not Heidi): They shoot multiple consecutive shots, and if their current target dies before all of their shots have been fired, they will move to the next target to finish off their "turn". This can result in damage against multiple mobs and, with Joachim, knockback.

I'd noticed that with Sheryl. I'm not sure how much I value it though, since it doesn't come up as often as I'd like. I'll definitely need more data.
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cuddytime



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PostSubject: Re: Struesdell's Theorycrafting   Mon Sep 17, 2012 11:55 pm

struesdell wrote:
zoebeagle wrote:
Really enjoying this thread.

I'm glad! I can't be the best at the game so I'm trying to be the best at pretending.

Quote :
One thing I'm not sure you've taken into account with the archers (not Heidi): They shoot multiple consecutive shots, and if their current target dies before all of their shots have been fired, they will move to the next target to finish off their "turn". This can result in damage against multiple mobs and, with Joachim, knockback.

I'd noticed that with Sheryl. I'm not sure how much I value it though, since it doesn't come up as often as I'd like. I'll definitely need more data.
I noticed this as well, however, I think at best it's marginal utility.
Joa's knockback does much less per hit than 1 normal knockback hit
i like to them of the point as "moot"
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cuddytime



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PostSubject: Re: Struesdell's Theorycrafting   Mon Sep 17, 2012 11:55 pm

struesdell wrote:
cuddytime wrote:
haha now do one with 6*'s... b/c i'm lazy

YOU AND YOUR DEMANDS!


excellent work :]
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Serotheo



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PostSubject: Re: Struesdell's Theorycrafting   Tue Sep 18, 2012 1:30 am

This is based on overall utility right?
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struesdell
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PostSubject: Re: Struesdell's Theorycrafting   Tue Sep 18, 2012 2:02 am

Serotheo wrote:
This is based on overall utility right?

Yeah, my evaluation is largely mathematical by assigning a value to everything a card can have, and then comparing them.

So based on raw damage output and modified by skill abilities and other factors, these charts represent the relative value of these cards mechanically. It has nothing to do with the appeal or relative tradeworthyness of the cards. Just math. Nina kills things better than Monica.
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Varis
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PostSubject: Re: Struesdell's Theorycrafting   Tue Sep 18, 2012 2:21 am

This is awesome information! Thanks! Very Happy

(not that I can make use of it yet... I'm still in 3-4* mode) :<

But stilll! Awesome!
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