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 Struesdell's Theorycrafting

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zoebeagle
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PostSubject: Re: Struesdell's Theorycrafting   Fri Sep 14, 2012 1:31 pm

Do the new cards get an EXP boost when you use them, or do they just give you BT points?

What does BT stand for anyway?
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struesdell
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PostSubject: Re: Struesdell's Theorycrafting   Fri Sep 14, 2012 1:33 pm

zoebeagle wrote:
Do the new cards get an EXP boost when you use them, or do they just give you BT points?

What does BT stand for anyway?

It looks like you get more BT points and the number you get increases as you get further into the event.
I'm assuming BT stands for "BaTtle". Razz
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zoebeagle
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PostSubject: Re: Struesdell's Theorycrafting   Fri Sep 14, 2012 1:35 pm

struesdell wrote:
zoebeagle wrote:
Do the new cards get an EXP boost when you use them, or do they just give you BT points?

What does BT stand for anyway?

It looks like you get more BT points and the number you get increases as you get further into the event.
I'm assuming BT stands for "BaTtle". Razz

I think we should have a contest to see who can come up with the funniest/most clever acronym.

*poke* clocksprocket *poke*
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clocksprocket
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PostSubject: Re: Struesdell's Theorycrafting   Fri Sep 14, 2012 1:50 pm

Big Tits?

Should probably leave the BT hypothesizing out of this nice theorycrafting thread. Laughing
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struesdell
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PostSubject: Re: Struesdell's Theorycrafting   Fri Sep 14, 2012 1:50 pm

Colosseum Best-In-Slot
Based on my current math. I haven't changed the stat weights yet, but I only count a card's best attack stat and I'm trying to fit all five cards into the 100 points you get.

The #1 factor here is levels. Level your cards. Do it. DOOO ITTTT.

Like a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heaven
  1. Jane
  2. Jane
  3. Jane
  4. Jane
  5. Claudio
    Janes have the best of everything in 2*, it's really not fair. Claudio makes them better by a larger degree than another Jane.


Like a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heaven
  1. Gustav
  2. Gustav
  3. Matvei
  4. Kinderik
  5. Theresa
    This looks like the highest combination that takes advantage of Theresa. Theresa is pretty garbage, but her attack plus is giving enough boost to your two Gustavs that they're hitting like trucks (for a 3*). At 3*, it doesn't feel like it's worth it to try to stack skills here because Gustav's are SO MUCH BETTER than most of the other 3*s. Build for raw damage.


Like a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heaven
  1. Anton
  2. Anton
  3. Anton
  4. Robert
  5. Alex
    This was a tough one. If you have a Scarlet who is higher level than your Robert, switch'm. Robert pulls ahead with Alex's buff but only JUST BARELY. I was going to write a second list including some consideration for skills but I accidentally the whole thing. That's a lot of Knockback.


Like a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heaven
  1. Heidimarie
  2. Heidimarie
  3. Heidimarie
  4. Heidimarie
  5. Heidimarie
    OMG Heidimarie. Not fair. She costs 10 AND has the highest single attack stat for a 5*? In TWO STATS? NOT FAIR.


Like a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heaven [No Heidi, No Duplicates]
  1. Joachim
  2. Ignat
  3. Sophie
  4. Stefan
  5. Thrain
    I have to do a second list because that other one is correct but laughable.
    Thrain pulls ahead over Rose on account of higher attack speed. This list gets you Knockback and Slow but it's hard to afford the power loss associated with taking someone with Area Attack or Poison in this list.
    If you DO have Heidi, use her instead of Thrain. Stefan's actually pretty good, he's not a token military unit.


Like a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heaven [No Duplicates, Max Damage]
  1. Vlad
  2. Monica
  3. Nina
  4. Beatrix
  5. Charles
    UGH, CHARLES. Vlad and Monica are EXPENSIVE but their max attacks are HUGE. This list gives you two knockbacks and a slow, which is solid. Nina earns her keep and is a steal at 15, but Beatrix and Charles are all you can fit otherwise. :/
    I think "all 6*" is just unreasonable, and this proves it. I couldn't even get Cecilia in for the BT boost.


Like a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heaven [No Duplicates, BT+]
  1. Cecilia
  2. Vlad
  3. Anastasia
  4. Nina
  5. Charles
    Here's the best if you DO force Cecilia in. Two knockbacks, poison, slow. But Losing Monica hurts.
    There's no way to lose Charles here without also losing Vlad.


Last edited by struesdell on Fri Sep 14, 2012 3:22 pm; edited 10 times in total (Reason for editing : Added 6*)
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struesdell
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PostSubject: Re: Struesdell's Theorycrafting   Fri Sep 14, 2012 3:53 pm

Invalidated!

It looks like my math for damage in the colosseum was wrong. I'm going to have to rebalance. The above are still good builds, but in some cases I might be able to do better.
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struesdell
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PostSubject: Re: Struesdell's Theorycrafting   Fri Sep 14, 2012 4:52 pm

Ugh, damage in the Colosseum is weird and there's clearly some variable I'm having trouble predicting.

Right now, it LOOKS like your damage dealt per swing is something like BestAttack+((SecondAttack+ThirdAttack)*.3), but that leaves me with a +/- 3-4% on every example I've found. And there's no random per swing, every swing is the same. It's not just using your Land, it is definitely selecting ahead for your best damage whatever that might be.

Still, I can feed that inclusion of 30% of your secondary and tertiary stats into my best-of formulas and recalculate BiS lists.
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struesdell
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PostSubject: Re: Struesdell's Theorycrafting   Fri Sep 14, 2012 6:47 pm

Figured it out. DUH, it's my Ally Point skills interacting. I'll get my lists updated by EoD.
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clocksprocket
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PostSubject: Re: Struesdell's Theorycrafting   Fri Sep 14, 2012 6:52 pm

What's it based on?
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struesdell
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PostSubject: Re: Struesdell's Theorycrafting   Fri Sep 14, 2012 7:08 pm

clocksprocket wrote:
What's it based on?

I tend to value individual cards in a particular way because of how they interacted with the Demon Tower and how they work in quests.
The Best-In-Slot lists I posted are intended to maximize the damage output of your team's actions such that you're doing as much damage as possible in the Colosseum battles. I've been backwards engineering the way the math is handled for attacks and I've been adjusting my stat-weights for the various skills based on how they work in that context.

It looks like damage in the Colosseum isn't as simple as "Higher aggregate land/air/sea power". As a result, just using the guy who has the biggest numbers isn't always going to be optimal. And stats like Range don't matter at all.
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clocksprocket
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PostSubject: Re: Struesdell's Theorycrafting   Fri Sep 14, 2012 7:10 pm

Haha yeah, I meant it seemed like you figured out what Colosseum damage is based on, so I was hoping you'd let us know how exactly it's done.
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struesdell
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PostSubject: Re: Struesdell's Theorycrafting   Fri Sep 14, 2012 7:17 pm

clocksprocket wrote:
Haha yeah, I meant it seemed like you figured out what Colosseum damage is based on, so I was hoping you'd let us know how exactly it's done.

OH THAT.

Right, so it looks like your damage dealt is

(HighestDamageStat*SkillModifiers)+(.25*((MiddleDamageStat*SkillModifiers)+(LowestDamageStat*SkillModifiers))
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struesdell
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PostSubject: Re: Struesdell's Theorycrafting   Fri Sep 14, 2012 8:22 pm

Updated Colosseum Best-in-Slot List

Like a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heaven
  1. Jane
  2. Jane
  3. Jane
  4. Jane
  5. Jane
    Sorry Claudio, no harem for you. Sadly, the damage-per-round for this lineup is 133100 with all Janes, and swapping one out for Claudio's boost to women drops it down to 130438(-2662) if you don't have any of the Ally-point skills to boost it.


Like a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heaven
  1. Gustav
  2. Gustav
  3. Matvei
  4. Kinderik
  5. Theresa
    This looks like the highest combination that takes advantage of Theresa. Theresa is pretty garbage, but her attack plus is giving enough boost to your two Gustavs that they're hitting like trucks (for a 3*). At 3*, it doesn't feel like it's worth it to try to stack skills here because Gustav's are SO MUCH BETTER than most of the other 3*s. Build for raw damage. This one is confirmed with the new math. I tried swapping out Theresa the way I had to with the 2*s, and she's actually totally worth it here.


Like a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heaven
  1. Anton
  2. Anton
  3. Anton
  4. Scarlet
  5. Alex
    New math fixed this one. Scarlet is way better than Robert, even with Alex's buff.
    I was going to write a second list including some consideration for skills but I accidentally the whole thing. That's a lot of Knockback.


Like a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heaven
  1. Heidimarie
  2. Heidimarie
  3. Heidimarie
  4. Heidimarie
  5. Heidimarie
    OMG Heidimarie. Not fair. She costs 10 AND has the highest single attack stat for a 5*? In TWO STATS? NOT FAIR.


Like a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heaven [No Heidi, No Duplicates]
  1. Joachim
  2. Ignat
  3. Sophie
  4. Stefan
  5. Rose
    I have to do a second list because that other one is correct but laughable.
    If you DO have Heidi, use her instead of Rose. Stefan's actually pretty good, he's not a token military unit.


Like a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heaven [No Duplicates, Max Damage]
  1. Vlad
  2. Monica
  3. Nina
  4. Beatrix
  5. Charles
    UGH, CHARLES. Vlad and Monica are EXPENSIVE but their max attacks are HUGE. This list gives you two knockbacks and a slow, which is solid. Nina earns her keep and is a steal at 15, but Beatrix and Charles are all you can fit otherwise. :/
    I think "all 6*" is just unreasonable, and this proves it. I couldn't even get Cecilia in for the BT boost.


Like a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heavenLike a Star @ heaven [No Duplicates, BT+]
  1. Cecilia
  2. Vlad
  3. Anastasia
  4. Nina
  5. Charles
    Here's the best if you DO force Cecilia in. Two knockbacks, poison, slow. But Losing Monica hurts.
    There's no way to lose Charles here without also losing Vlad.


----

In the end, not a whole lot of changes. Mostly it sucks to be Claudio. I think it helps that the cards with the highest power are also the ones that specialize, and so the extra +25% of your lower attack powers didn't really shift the weight around. At all.
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struesdell
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PostSubject: Re: Struesdell's Theorycrafting   Sat Sep 15, 2012 12:20 pm

For my next trick, I'm working on the math behind enhancing for levels so that we can verify that 3x1*>2*(lv4) is the best way once and for all. Smile (I THINK IT IS)
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struesdell
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PostSubject: Re: Struesdell's Theorycrafting   Sat Sep 15, 2012 1:16 pm

struesdell wrote:
For my next trick, I'm working on the math behind enhancing for levels so that we can verify that 3x1*>2*(lv4) is the best way once and for all. Smile (I THINK IT IS)

Okay so one useful initial finding is that the experience you earn through enhancing is displayed AFTER modifiers for the cost of leveling where the experience earned in questing is displayed BEFORE modifiers. This is why if you enhance and it says you're getting 311 xp, your card will go up 3.1 levels. If you quest 24-6 for ~580 xp you DO NOT go up 5.8 levels. I WISH. Razz
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Serotheo



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PostSubject: Re: Struesdell's Theorycrafting   Sat Sep 15, 2012 1:32 pm

I take it that you just realized that ;-;
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RedRivers
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PostSubject: Re: Struesdell's Theorycrafting   Sat Sep 15, 2012 1:35 pm

my level 2 heidi hits for like 28k in colliseum....
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struesdell
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PostSubject: Re: Struesdell's Theorycrafting   Sat Sep 15, 2012 1:46 pm

Serotheo wrote:
I take it that you just realized that ;-;

Well obviously I knew that the 580 xp wasn't getting me 5 levels, but there wasn't a lot of indication that the 442 exp I was getting for 5 1*s into a 2* would be exactly 4.42 levels. I wasn't double checking the XP percentages of every 2* I enhanced, no. Razz
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struesdell
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PostSubject: Re: Struesdell's Theorycrafting   Sat Sep 15, 2012 1:48 pm

RedRivers wrote:
my level 2 heidi hits for like 28k in colliseum....

Yeah, it sounds like you don't get a bonus to points earned for using the new cards, but you do crazy (*3) colosseum damage. Also, Heidi is crazy good for a 5*. Like, 30% better than she should be.
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clocksprocket
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PostSubject: Re: Struesdell's Theorycrafting   Sat Sep 15, 2012 5:42 pm

Haha, exp is the first thing I noticed in the game. That when enhancing, it's on like a 100% scale, and 10 exp = 10% of a level. But I was confused for a long time about why earning 200 exp or whatever wasn't giving me more levels, until I checked the exp displayed on the card before and after and figured that out.
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struesdell
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PostSubject: Re: Struesdell's Theorycrafting   Sat Sep 15, 2012 7:04 pm

So now that I've traded away my Ignat, I feel better posting this.

Here is a comparative analysis of the relative damage output of all the 5* cards based on my current stat weights and analysis.
This does NOT reflect Colosseum effectiveness, but rather Quest / Battle power.

EDIT: REMOVED OUT OF DATE GRAPH

Do you see how crazy Heidimarie is? It's not fair. She has no business being a 5* card.

I want you to disagree. This is based on my own perception and I'd love to work some of your perceptions into it for a better spectrum.

For example, somebody has to convince me that Gerhard isn't garbage. You love your Gerhard. Why?


Last edited by struesdell on Mon Sep 17, 2012 8:48 pm; edited 1 time in total
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clocksprocket
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PostSubject: Re: Struesdell's Theorycrafting   Sat Sep 15, 2012 7:28 pm

It's Erhard, bee tee dubs.

Gerhard has one of the highest land attack stats, but that's not accounting for Camille's boost, any speed or range differences. Plus he looks cooler than Thrain. Razz
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struesdell
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PostSubject: Re: Struesdell's Theorycrafting   Sat Sep 15, 2012 7:42 pm

clocksprocket wrote:
Gerhard has one of the highest land attack stats, but that's not accounting for Camille's boost, any speed or range differences. Plus he looks cooler than Thrain. Razz

Land Attack: Gerhard is #2 behind CHEATING HEIDI GAH.
Camille's Boost: Without improvements to the skill through ally point skills, Camille's boost pushes him up to 52520 which is still below Gerhard. So Gerhard is still king there.
Speed & Range: Gerhard is at C speed and 130 range, which is average for melee units. Ignat definitely earns his place with the better attack speed.

So because I think the value of a card's damage output is most applicable to people using them in 24-6, I overvalue Melee/Land Attack because that's the type with the least resistance from that quest. So that's actually HELPING Gerhard.

But Gerhard has 0 air, and such a phenomenally low sea damage (8k) that he loses a lot in the math for raw power. And it's definitely a strike against his broad applicability and flexibility as a unit.

I think I'd rather have a unit that hit a little less hard on the ground but could contribute more to Air and Sea defense.

I'll give him +5 points for being good lookin'. Very Happy

(I'll fix the spellin' in the next version.)

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clocksprocket
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PostSubject: Re: Struesdell's Theorycrafting   Sat Sep 15, 2012 7:49 pm

Oh, I definitely agree with you, and I'm not seriously trying to argue that Gerhard is particularly good.

I wouldn't really value cards based on their use for 24-6. Almost anyone can eventually complete that stage, and I think as we've seen, different cards perform differently in various events. Venus Colosseum, I'd value knockback more than other skills; Demon's Tower you'd have to give props to DEs, obviously; Mina's Trials had a whole different load out...

But what I see in the chart does make good sense. Which makes me as confused as ever when I found out people would occasionally trade two 5*s for an Adolph.
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struesdell
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PostSubject: Re: Struesdell's Theorycrafting   Sat Sep 15, 2012 7:52 pm

clocksprocket wrote:

But what I see in the chart does make good sense. Which makes me as confused as ever when I found out people would occasionally trade two 5*s for an Adolph.

What is UP with that? I assume it's the grimdarks trying to have a grimdark lead. Razz

Someday, I want to finish out all of the special quests. My own valuation of some cards for my collection have been how they'll perform solo for completing the solo quests. Embarassed
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