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 [SERIES] The Full Metal Series [ Nov 19 - Nov 29]

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tsunonlau
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PostSubject: Re: [SERIES] The Full Metal Series [ Nov 19 - Nov 29]   Wed Nov 21, 2012 2:16 pm

predator852 wrote:
tsunonlau wrote:
I can't resist to bring this up.....

Did anyone notice or did some experimentation to see whether the 6* in the series box is a drawing without replacement box...(If you know what I meant to say)

Let's say there was a fixed probability AT THE BEGINNING before anyone open a box and because they are drawing without replacement, the probability of getting each cards changes.... that would be a terrible result to miss the first day of drawing.. let's say the chance of getting a 6* Seth is already as low as 0.2% at the beginning... Which means P(at least one 6* from 100 draw) = 1-(0.998)^70 = 13% only (10 BOXES)

Maybe it's just because I have no idea what the phrase "replacement box" means but...what????

In intro statistic, we have this model called "Box Model" right? I should say replacement in a box.. That's what I am referring to... drawing with or without replacement... if someone drew a 6* and there's no replacement for that card... the next person who purchases the same no. of boxes (i.e. 10 boxes in this situation) wouldn't have the same chances of getting 6* it would drops dramatically.. that's why people gets more 6* when event starts..and Gradually stopped showing up..because chances dropped too much that..no one have that super luck to get the remaining 6*
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orionknight
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PostSubject: Re: [SERIES] The Full Metal Series [ Nov 19 - Nov 29]   Wed Nov 21, 2012 2:51 pm

digitalsynner wrote:
BkWiz wrote:


Stats mean nothing if they are too slow to do much with that damage.

Also, KB is not the best skill to use in towers imo. Not unless you have weak allies and are using a level 1 unit...

That being said, neither Guy nor Keith are great units overall, but I'd think Guy's stats relative to the rest of the Area Attack 4* available would give him a better shelf-life. No one's gonna want to trade for or use Keith after this event...

As for who to use in the event, I might as well just take a poll of my allies given that I'm unlikely to acquire a 5*/6* anytime soon.


Im not too sure about that. Keith's cost is only 15. With speed of C and max ground attack of 30k, this makes him a great filler when it comes to colloseum events. If you need that extra little something in your ranks, and everything else is too expensive. Also, KB is good for that event too~
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predator852
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PostSubject: Re: [SERIES] The Full Metal Series [ Nov 19 - Nov 29]   Wed Nov 21, 2012 3:14 pm

tsunonlau wrote:
predator852 wrote:
tsunonlau wrote:
I can't resist to bring this up.....

Did anyone notice or did some experimentation to see whether the 6* in the series box is a drawing without replacement box...(If you know what I meant to say)

Let's say there was a fixed probability AT THE BEGINNING before anyone open a box and because they are drawing without replacement, the probability of getting each cards changes.... that would be a terrible result to miss the first day of drawing.. let's say the chance of getting a 6* Seth is already as low as 0.2% at the beginning... Which means P(at least one 6* from 100 draw) = 1-(0.998)^70 = 13% only (10 BOXES)

Maybe it's just because I have no idea what the phrase "replacement box" means but...what????

In intro statistic, we have this model called "Box Model" right? I should say replacement in a box.. That's what I am referring to... drawing with or without replacement... if someone drew a 6* and there's no replacement for that card... the next person who purchases the same no. of boxes (i.e. 10 boxes in this situation) wouldn't have the same chances of getting 6* it would drops dramatically.. that's why people gets more 6* when event starts..and Gradually stopped showing up..because chances dropped too much that..no one have that super luck to get the remaining 6*

I'm not going to pretend to be as advanced in class as you are, because I'm not. But I have seen some of your other posts, and I can tell that you're well versed in all things math related. Me, I'm all into analysis, so we're products of the same ancestors some would say. Now I sorta get what you're saying here, but i dont think that model is plausible.

Inserting a specific # of 6*'s into a pack just seems like it would throw off the total percentage for boxes. As the six stars were depleted the algorithim built into the system would have to make up for the change in percentages by uping the amount of 5* draws. For intance. If the box begins with 250 6*'s and players begin with a .2% chance to draw, then each 6* draw drastically educes the chance to get one. So, for the game to keep that up, it would boost the rate of 3, 4&5* pulls to keep the percentage the same. Now think about when there's 1 six star left in the system. The game coulnt ever let that six star drop because then there would be no card to fill the .2% drop rate of a six star, so to balance this it would increase the rate of everything else in a six stars place, and 5* would drop almost every pack.

What I think people misjudge is the fact that a box does not yeild a higer chance to drop a six star collectivly. When they open the box, and the first six cards are all 4* cards, the seventh card still only has a .2% chance to be a six star, and still has an overwhelming chance to be a 4*.

Also, what I think you see is people trying to play the market. The minute a pack becomes avalible the game is flooded by people buying packs because cards are worth more the sooner you get them. So, on day one a huge amount, lets say one million packs are sold. Then every day the number of packs bought drops 10%. Thus, the number of 6*'s pulled drops 10% a day.

That's just what i think is going on =)

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predator852
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PostSubject: Re: [SERIES] The Full Metal Series [ Nov 19 - Nov 29]   Wed Nov 21, 2012 3:17 pm

And I think what you mean by replacement box is like: "whether or not something pulled gets an identical thing to take its place.

I.E. if you have a bag of M&M's and 10 are red and 5 are green and 40 are yellow, In the replacement model when you draw one you put it back, thus preserving the percentage rate. But if not using the replacement model when you draw one you eat it, thus changing the percentage.

This post is just to explain what I got from your last post, If I'm wrong please correct me.

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Lydia_H_Christ



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PostSubject: Re: [SERIES] The Full Metal Series [ Nov 19 - Nov 29]   Wed Nov 21, 2012 4:13 pm

predator852 wrote:
tsunonlau wrote:
predator852 wrote:
tsunonlau wrote:
I can't resist to bring this up.....

Did anyone notice or did some experimentation to see whether the 6* in the series box is a drawing without replacement box...(If you know what I meant to say)

Let's say there was a fixed probability AT THE BEGINNING before anyone open a box and because they are drawing without replacement, the probability of getting each cards changes.... that would be a terrible result to miss the first day of drawing.. let's say the chance of getting a 6* Seth is already as low as 0.2% at the beginning... Which means P(at least one 6* from 100 draw) = 1-(0.998)^70 = 13% only (10 BOXES)

Maybe it's just because I have no idea what the phrase "replacement box" means but...what????

In intro statistic, we have this model called "Box Model" right? I should say replacement in a box.. That's what I am referring to... drawing with or without replacement... if someone drew a 6* and there's no replacement for that card... the next person who purchases the same no. of boxes (i.e. 10 boxes in this situation) wouldn't have the same chances of getting 6* it would drops dramatically.. that's why people gets more 6* when event starts..and Gradually stopped showing up..because chances dropped too much that..no one have that super luck to get the remaining 6*

I'm not going to pretend to be as advanced in class as you are, because I'm not. But I have seen some of your other posts, and I can tell that you're well versed in all things math related. Me, I'm all into analysis, so we're products of the same ancestors some would say. Now I sorta get what you're saying here, but i dont think that model is plausible.

Inserting a specific # of 6*'s into a pack just seems like it would throw off the total percentage for boxes. As the six stars were depleted the algorithim built into the system would have to make up for the change in percentages by uping the amount of 5* draws. For intance. If the box begins with 250 6*'s and players begin with a .2% chance to draw, then each 6* draw drastically educes the chance to get one. So, for the game to keep that up, it would boost the rate of 3, 4&5* pulls to keep the percentage the same. Now think about when there's 1 six star left in the system. The game coulnt ever let that six star drop because then there would be no card to fill the .2% drop rate of a six star, so to balance this it would increase the rate of everything else in a six stars place, and 5* would drop almost every pack.

What I think people misjudge is the fact that a box does not yeild a higer chance to drop a six star collectivly. When they open the box, and the first six cards are all 4* cards, the seventh card still only has a .2% chance to be a six star, and still has an overwhelming chance to be a 4*.

Also, what I think you see is people trying to play the market. The minute a pack becomes avalible the game is flooded by people buying packs because cards are worth more the sooner you get them. So, on day one a huge amount, lets say one million packs are sold. Then every day the number of packs bought drops 10%. Thus, the number of 6*'s pulled drops 10% a day.

That's just what i think is going on =)


So impressed with all this smarty pants talk.



Also, I agree
Very Happy
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tsunonlau
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PostSubject: Re: [SERIES] The Full Metal Series [ Nov 19 - Nov 29]   Wed Nov 21, 2012 4:19 pm

I think we all yield the same judgement despite our different ways of interpretation, I am really glad someone further affirm my thinking.. Now, I have more motivation to quite the addiction to draw numerous boxes from different boxes. May be I will ultimately drop a fortune on one series on the first day and then I am out Razz
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digitalsynner



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PostSubject: Re: [SERIES] The Full Metal Series [ Nov 19 - Nov 29]   Wed Nov 21, 2012 5:34 pm

tsunonlau wrote:
I think we all yield the same judgement despite our different ways of interpretation, I am really glad someone further affirm my thinking.. Now, I have more motivation to quite the addiction to draw numerous boxes from different boxes. May be I will ultimately drop a fortune on one series on the first day and then I am out Razz

That's what I've decided to do, especially considering the limited edition series cards usually give some sort of performance bonus during the related event.

Series box yields 7 cards (approx. $4/card) vs. Mega box 14 cards (approx. $2/card), but you are guaranteed limited edition 3/4/5* (no 2*!). Plus there are usually some TE/potion incentives as well.

I can always save up to trade for regular series cards.
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tsunonlau
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PostSubject: Re: [SERIES] The Full Metal Series [ Nov 19 - Nov 29]   Wed Nov 21, 2012 8:29 pm

digitalsynner wrote:
tsunonlau wrote:
I think we all yield the same judgement despite our different ways of interpretation, I am really glad someone further affirm my thinking.. Now, I have more motivation to quite the addiction to draw numerous boxes from different boxes. May be I will ultimately drop a fortune on one series on the first day and then I am out Razz

That's what I've decided to do, especially considering the limited edition series cards usually give some sort of performance bonus during the related event.

Series box yields 7 cards (approx. $4/card) vs. Mega box 14 cards (approx. $2/card), but you are guaranteed limited edition 3/4/5* (no 2*!). Plus there are usually some TE/potion incentives as well.

I can always save up to trade for regular series cards.

Exactly, Limited Addition always generate some value over time...

However, I am stuck at deciding whether or not to go all out for this series for Seth. ( Since I have already purchased 5 boxes and get only a 5* Claude....I don't know if my odd will enough to bring me a 6* in a few more try Embarassed ) Any suggestion?
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aszutai
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PostSubject: Re: [SERIES] The Full Metal Series [ Nov 19 - Nov 29]   Wed Nov 21, 2012 8:40 pm

tsunonlau wrote:
digitalsynner wrote:
tsunonlau wrote:
I think we all yield the same judgement despite our different ways of interpretation, I am really glad someone further affirm my thinking.. Now, I have more motivation to quite the addiction to draw numerous boxes from different boxes. May be I will ultimately drop a fortune on one series on the first day and then I am out Razz

That's what I've decided to do, especially considering the limited edition series cards usually give some sort of performance bonus during the related event.

Series box yields 7 cards (approx. $4/card) vs. Mega box 14 cards (approx. $2/card), but you are guaranteed limited edition 3/4/5* (no 2*!). Plus there are usually some TE/potion incentives as well.

I can always save up to trade for regular series cards.

Exactly, Limited Addition always generate some value over time...

However, I am stuck at deciding whether or not to go all out for this series for Seth. ( Since I have already purchased 5 boxes and get only a 5* Claude....I don't know if my odd will enough to bring me a 6* in a few more try Embarassed ) Any suggestion?

Personally I think going all out on boxes hoping to get a 6* is probably a bad idea, since in theory you can spend up to several grand worth of cash and still not land a 6* Neutral

If there's a event prize that I happen to want to get then I would go for it since it'll actually help me get the prize I want, plus a chance of pulling a 6* from the pack. So that way I won't be kicking myself even if I hit a string of bad luck and pull nothing but 2*-4*s from however many boxes I bought. *Waiting for the right event to come up to buy the boxes Cool *

But in the end it's your money tsunonlau, so yea spend it how you want Razz
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Dannupa



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PostSubject: Re: [SERIES] The Full Metal Series [ Nov 19 - Nov 29]   Wed Nov 21, 2012 8:43 pm

tsunonlau wrote:
I think we all yield the same judgement despite our different ways of interpretation, I am really glad someone further affirm my thinking.. Now, I have more motivation to quite the addiction to draw numerous boxes from different boxes. May be I will ultimately drop a fortune on one series on the first day and then I am out Razz

I think predator and you are saying different things.

Predator (and my) interpretation is that odds of pulling a 6* do not change over time, or within a pack of cards. Each and every card has the same odds of pulling a 6* or 5* or etc. If you are seeing more people pulling 6* at the release of a pack it is just because more people are buying packs not some change in odds. So we're assuming this is a "full replacement" model.

I think you are suggesting that there may be a "no replacement" model, where a card that is pulled is gone forever and pulling a 6* reduces the chances of a future 6*. You're actually postulating a weird no replacement model where only the 6* are not replaced, but everything else is. I think this would be complicated to program (something like first running a RNG to see if you got a 6*, then a different RNG if that failed to see what card you got). I doubt this is the case, but I guess it is possible.

Of course I may have misinterpreted either you or predator! It should be possible to test this without spending a gajillion dollars yourself, if you are willing to obsessively track the rare card report. Just copy down all 5* and 6* from a series pack on the first day and later days of the event. If the ratio stays the same then the "full replacement" model is right (or at least they are treating 5* and 6* the same). If the odds are the same as Japan DB set, it would be a ration of 19:1 for 5*:6*. Of course you will likely need to collect data on a lot of cards to be sure sample sizes are large enough to test.
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tsunonlau
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PostSubject: Re: [SERIES] The Full Metal Series [ Nov 19 - Nov 29]   Wed Nov 21, 2012 9:08 pm

aszutai wrote:


Personally I think going all out on boxes hoping to get a 6* is probably a bad idea, since in theory you can spend up to several grand worth of cash and still not land a 6* Neutral

If there's a event prize that I happen to want to get then I would go for it since it'll actually help me get the prize I want, plus a chance of pulling a 6* from the pack. So that way I won't be kicking myself even if I hit a string of bad luck and pull nothing but 2*-4*s from however many boxes I bought. *Waiting for the right event to come up to buy the boxes Cool *

But in the end it's your money tsunonlau, so yea spend it how you want Razz

That's a very risky investment, I understand what you are saying...I am holding up Neutral

Dannupa wrote:
tsunonlau wrote:
I think we all yield the same judgement despite our different ways of interpretation, I am really glad someone further affirm my thinking.. Now, I have more motivation to quite the addiction to draw numerous boxes from different boxes. May be I will ultimately drop a fortune on one series on the first day and then I am out Razz

I think predator and you are saying different things. it is possible.
...
Of course I may have misinterpreted either you or predator! It should be possible to test this without spending a gajillion dollars yourself, if you are willing to obsessively track the rare card report. Just copy down all 5* and 6* from a series pack on the first day and later days of the event. If the ratio stays the same then the "full replacement" model is right (or at least they are treating 5* and 6* the same). If the odds are the same as Japan DB set, it would be a ration of 19:1 for 5*:6*. Of course you will likely need to collect data on a lot of cards to be sure sample sizes are large enough to test.

May be you are right too. I guess I don't have enough resources to provide that experiment.
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Stephil711



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PostSubject: Re: [SERIES] The Full Metal Series [ Nov 19 - Nov 29]   Sat Nov 24, 2012 6:55 pm

I bought too many of these card packs without getting Seth. Got 4 of the 5*s though.

Wish I would have waited and bought some of the normal packs now that the Thanksgiving Blitz is out.
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PostSubject: Re: [SERIES] The Full Metal Series [ Nov 19 - Nov 29]   Wed Nov 28, 2012 6:46 pm

Whoops wrong post lol
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